Over the last year that what I can only call 'political climate change' has eroded the old certainties about taxation versus cuts . No doubt there will be flat earthist deniers ,but the polls do seem to follow the money .Now I see a Survey in the Speccie adding new weight to the thesis . ‘72 per cent believe that spending has risen too high.' it says ' Just 15 per cent consider spending too low. The cutters outweigh the spenders by four-to-one.'( Politics Home Survey of 1,406 )’
Of course political climate change has complex effects . Some may be rather cooler than previously ……
Cool- Michael Howard --In 2002 as shadow Chancellor he drew attention to the savings ratio, which was at an all-time low; (it has hit many more all-time lows since.) In 2003 he warned that savings had halved under Labour, that Labour were borrowing more and families were getting deeper into debt. Tried to get elected ona savings ticket , was lambasted .Cool!
Frosty -Paul Moore -The former head of risk at HBOS predicted that the bank’s actions could lead to disaster before being fired by Brown adviser Sir James Crosby the bank’s former chief executive
....some will start to feel an uncomfortable heat around their flabby necks Grill -John Foster who left his 'social care scandal' ridden Wakefield Council a Year ago with a severance payment of £340,000 ,on top of his annual Salary of £205,000.…. Roast alive - All Nine Executives of th Environment Agency responsible for flood management who were all paid five figure bonuses as the country to took boats having met 42 of their 49 targets Incinerate -Richard Grainger responsible for NHS Computer systems paid £285,000.… (and what a success that was) (2006) Set aflame - Iona Jones in 2006 paid £145000 to run the Welsh Fourth Channel watched by 104,000 viewers Roast - James Braithwaite of SEEDA spent £51000 on taxis 2007 Fry -SEEDA representative in its mystifying Stuttgart Office paid £89,000 for 8 months part time work Griddle - Chief Executive of Kent County Council Peter Gilroy who got £229000 per annum in 2007 Toast -Ian Smith the Birmingham Tarffic Light Engineer who was paid , in 2006 mind you , £71,000 plus £16,000 bonus for being on call plus £5000 overtime .......For some the heat may become unbearable ...
Gas Mark 8 - Hector Sants Chief Executive of the FSA -Salary at least £500,000 -Spending £263,300,000 -Staff 2659 Burn in hell-~( who else) Gordon BrownMarch 2004 “ ( Bonuses ) have ...contribute quite a substantial amount to the additional revenue …”3 Months later …” ( Bonuses ) I think it is sometimes forgotten they are a major source of extra revenue …” Surely not the ..“ Short term deals that have no relation to long term performance” and “..are damaging to the economy" he disapproves of ?Fancy.
Parky hasbeen rather nasty about Jade ....would he have dared ... ?
This what he really said ... with one or two words changed it goes like this...." She has her own place in the history of television and, while it’s significant, it’s nothing to be proud of.Her death is as sad as the death of any young person, but it’s not the passing of a martyr or a saint, 'When we clear the media smokescreen, what we’re left with is a woman who came to represent all that’s paltry and wretched about Britain today. 'She was brought up on an estate, as a child came to know nothing , was barely educated, ignorant and puerile.'His words are bound to come under fire from her legions of fans, who dubbed her the 'People`s Princess'.
Ciceros Songs recently included the below poem which seemed rather apposite to the destiny of Turkey so much in the news today . It is als a quite superb achievement by an Estonian poet unknown to me . I remarked ...”The Greeks who we see as the well spring of the West were rather more Asian than we have remembered .The conceptually pure white stone statues of Victorian 'classical' age were in fact brightly painted and bejewelled. Dionysus as important as Apollo .I would call this poem metaphysical in the sense that it joins thought and physical sensation , the body and the mind , also the comic with the elevated .It questions the idea of a boundary but understand s the need for one.” God I `m pretentious eh !
Turkey was once the quintessentially Eastern aggressor. but as a vital NATO member as yet not a member of the EU it is a Janus like creature . After the Iraq war only 8% of Turks are in favour of American leadership in world affairs .( Opinion Poll for the German Marshall Fund )worrying . For all that I deplore Islam in most current manifestations .and ultimately regard it as an enemy to be beaten,I support close ties with Turkey . Partly this is frustrate the petty delusions of the little froglet who wants a deeper ,not wider, EU .Partly for more important militarily strategic reasons .There are pieces today touching on the President’s visit in all the Papers Independent Guardian and Telegraph .Also an excellent piece in the FT about the growing gap between rhetoric and reality for Obama.
The East-West border
The East-West border is always wandering,sometimes eastward, sometimes west,and we do not know exactly where it is just now:in Gaugamela, in the Urals,or maybe in ourselves,so that one ear, one eye, one nostril, one hand, one foot,one lung and one testicle or one ovaryis on the one, another on the other side.Only the heartonly the heart is always on one side:if we are looking northward,in the West;if we are looking southward, in the East;and the mouth doesn't know on behalf of which or bothit has to speak.Jaan Kaplinski(Sam Hamill and Rita Tamm,Translators©2006 Copper Canyon Press)
Gordon`s first attempt to get that smile right was not an unqualified success....
Clive Crook, in the FT observes just far left Obama is pushing the US . With grim foreboding I notice how his dilemma (ambitions but no money ), mirrors New Labour’s in 97 . Blair's problem was a pledge to stick to Tory spending plans . For Obama its his undertaking to raise income taxes “by not one cent” for almost all Americans.
Squeezing the rich cannot plug the hole . To précis Mr. Crook ,the US income tax system is already ultra progressive (OECD study). It collects 45 per cent of its revenues from the highest-income decile. Compare that with Britain at 39 per cent, Canada at 36 per cent, France at 28 per cent, Sweden at 27 per cent and an OECD average of 32 per cent ….The fact that the US has no broadly based sales tax makes Europe’s overall tax codes less progressive still .Crook thinks Obama needs a Sales tax but that aint what he promised .
New Labour squared the circle of political debt and spending strictures by lying .Brown ‘shook up the world’ with his titanic announcement on new Health money ..“Under the previous government the increase for the past three years was £7 billion I am announcing an increase in health service funding of £21 billion …..“( GB 14.8.98)“..“The Gord Giveth ” howled the Mirror . .. Labour wept with joy , how did he do it ? Nowadays we would guess ,but back then it fooled everyone...
Actually spending was to rise by annual stages from £37 billion in 1988/9 to £46 billion in 2001/2 which is £9 billion per annum to you and I .He invented £21billion by adding in the extra three billion for 99/2000 an extra £6 billion for £2001/2 and the £9 billion for the year after that to get £18 billion . The extra £3 billion was Scotland Wales and N Ireland money bunged in out of context.
Even these figures were bogus . The IFS calculated that spending on health increased by 3.6% a year over five years . Under Major it had been 2.5%. Its more ,true , about £2.3 billion more over the lifetime of the Parliament ,or about 10% of the figure Gordon Brown announced . The same techniques , using multi year figures in a one year context , were used at the G20 .One wonders what Obama learnt by his proximity to V oldermort .It was Brown after all that schooled Blair in the dark arts not visa versa… .God help America and if Obama goes Browny ; god help us all.
This is “my bit” ,of our thing .On this fragile raft when the ships biscuits run out ,they aint there , simple, and if loans were available it would be a mixed blessing, because its hard to make the changes when there is an option.Cherished dreams must be sacrificed .. old friends made redundant ...unpleasant conversations had .It has been bloody but we are getting there
Amongst the haunted sons of Martha ,on the train ,cuts are often discussed ,but these usually turn out to have been long in the tubes . Le Crunch has been part excuse and part tipping point . Systems , I believe ,only change at such times .Gradual Darwinian evolution has evolved (sic), in Etheridge and Gould`s ,‘Interrupted Equilibrium’, model, periods of statis interrupted by bursts of “speciation” are predicted . Most of the time pressurres in the breeding population prevent change ,and my observation leads me to think this is agenerally applicable pattern .Change happens in jerks ,the longer the stop , the bloodier.
Inertia is a mighty force . Example .A friend is involved in merging ‘Help The Aged' with ‘Age Concern’ . These two charities are like any business for our purposes employing 2500, soon to be somewhat less .They compete with Saga in the oldster biz and a lovely market it is . The devil resides in his usual abode though ,white board missions must be translated into intricate reality ,and no-one either knows what they are doing or likes it .After a period of wound licking there a nippier beast will emerge but ...there must be blood and necessity is the knife .So why are we avoiding necessity ?Behind the borrow and print money strategy lurks the a metaphor from Fantasy Island " The plane , boss the plane ".If it gets below a certain speed it will fall out of the sky, they say, as it did in the 30s.Demand and employment are ,mysteriously, the only thing that matters . Less demand= less productive capacity = less employment = less demand etc. in an implosive cycle which sounds plausible ,but is it true ? Expanding the base supply of cash must also sustain the unsustainable and send the bloated credit drunk to the bar . 'Deflation 'they say,' oooga booga boo', but why so scary ? Deflation is a symptom of over valuation , a fact not a fear. We lived with creeping inflation so why not the reverse .We clearly need it having experienced over heated property ,investments and wages . I see it as a fortunate fall ,applying discipline to the utterly ignored side of the price equation .Supply. It forces change .
I am tired of hearing that scattering magic beans will help? Suppose we are not in a plane , suppose it’s a sinking ship and we ought to be exiting fatties and rowing . Better to know soon than continue our game of Bridge below deck .
In my gut I think what would have happened was adjustment followed by confidence, and investment. You can print as much confetti money as you like it no-one will spend it on over priced rubbish . and the only thing that will save us is the underlying strength of the global economy . I fear that after what has been done that may not be enough. Fortunately there are so many economic gurus that if you fish in the lucky dip for long enough you will find one who says what your gut was saying anyway.I have found Thorsten Polleit at the Luwig Von Mises Institue . There will be hyper inflation , there will be blood .Curdle up and listen
Have you ever seen one of those films where the kids are basically nice kids, with a tendency to burst into song , and there is some footling misunderstanding , and just when it seems that something not very tragic is about to happen ,the cry goes up . 'Hey ! Lets put on a show ! We can do it right here in the youth club.'
The feature of these dispiriting affairs is the utterly implausible spontaneity of the “Show ! In a trice decorations are applied , in a merry dancing way . For no obvious reasons harmony goes viral , everyone is so happy and singing and together in the “Show “ that the boys gets the girl ,the father forgives the boy, and anyone who has been watching in slack jawed car crash disbelief ,blinks ,and lunges for the remote.
I doubt anyone could miss the fact I am talking about the all singing all dancing G20 . Everyone is so harmonious , that the fact there is no money and no new agreement is lost in the sheer Joie de vivre. I hate to spoil the fun but , “Making available an extra $1 trillion”is a cheap trick. Not a penny of cold hard cash has been pledged . IMF Funds have not trebled to $750 billion, the extra $250bn is just a target. .Japan contributed $100bn to the IMF in January , not now . The EU has agreed to contribute $100bn at the last EU summit , not now . China`s $40bn is more or less the finger to the whole thing .A trade insurance scheme is called a “Kickstart." And $250 billion .(over two years) Actually it’s an illusory $125 billion shuffled into a more prominent position , not money . The OECD has been publishing lists of non-compliant nations, for the last year but ,in the show ,its called a “Breakthough “ on tax havens . The Ban on new trade barriers is a hope ,which will be ignored as night follows day .
But what about the grand finale . The Hall goes dark and the dark misunderstood brooding anti hero takes the stage . He is singing directly to his dearest love ,who we shall; call Miss Re-election........ He takes the Microphone nervously ,but with gowing cconviction...
“For the first time, (People are sobbing )...” we have come together....” ( even old dad shed a sneaky tear ) “... to set principles, for the global finance system.” ........ Suddenly Miss Re-election sees she has not understood this man she runs to the stage folds him in her arms and .....turn the stupid thing off !
It means .nothing whatsoever of course , and if I want to sooth my nerves with some amiably moronic entertainment I`ll go for the real thing. Cliff ... ....Young Ones (ooooeee ) Darling we`re the Young ones wweeeoo .Now that’s quality bullshit .
Martyr To The BBCI have just listened to the BBC`s coverage of the hot air fest that is the G20 with open mouthed astonishment . One gets accustomed to a certain “Progressive “ bias and I have long ceased to get unduly excited but this was quite bizarre . We swept over to the Chinese correspondent who gushed in that BBC self important way about the sleeping giant awakening and then he said they are putting in $40 billion . The GDP of China last year was $7.8 trillion so a proper assessment was surely that China had hardly bothered to put in the minimum to justify any smiling photo ops at all , a disaster ? Not according to the BBC.
Then we whisked off to see the “First Lady “ making a speech a out strong young women at some girls school , the sort of thing local Papers live on , but OMG , this was something amazing , said the BBC . What did they expect , a lap dance ?
Even the BBC hinted that control, of tax havens might need a detailed look , ( ie failure and thank god ) and hidden, almost imperceptibly, in the amazingly amazing awe ,was the fact that the “ Fiscal Stimulus” was modest, as people like us , did not have any money .
John Redwood puts it well ,“No great harm will have been done. The G20 will not save the world, but it shouldn’t make the situation any worse.” I think we will have a to wait while to get a perspective but the BBC has failed woefully to make a start . When they get over their teenage girly screams they will remember the real world . In that world the problem as Daniel Hannan said is that Gordon Brown has run out of our money. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, has said so. The IMF has said so. The European Commission has said so. The OECD has been repeatedly warning the UK that this day would come for more than 6 years. Dale thinks we are headed IMF=wards and I cannot help but notice that many of desperately mendacious international debt comparisons were dragged into the fray the last time Labour bankrupted Britain.
Martyred By The Authoritarian Left.
News that knocks the worlds petty problems into cocked hat, is that in 'Sunny Hundal' has banned me from Liberal Conspiracy ! When I spotted that he thought Lloyds Bank and Lloyds of London were the same thing I began to wonder if he would live long past thirty…..unfortunately he appears in rude health
Its been an interesting experience “Trolling “ there .The site has some really good writers .Sunder Katwala , Unity , Matt GB , Aaron and John B are all great value and there are more . It is tragic irony , that Sunny Hundal is …well how shall we put this.….. .A colleague at work coaches a football team and he says there comes a time when you have to say ,in a kindly way, to a young hopeful, “ Have you thought about tennis ….?”. If the embarrassingly semi literate Sunny thinks he is going to be a writer a close friend ought to whisper , ”Have you thought about …something else ?”.
Fortunately the people worth reading have their own blogs which I will pick up as I go along
Over the last year that what I can only call 'political climate change' has eroded the old certainties about taxation versus cuts . No doubt there will be flat earthist deniers ,but the polls do seem to follow the money .Now I see a Survey in the Speccie adding new weight to the thesis . ‘72 per cent believe that spending has risen too high.' it says ' Just 15 per cent consider spending too low. The cutters outweigh the spenders by four-to-one.'( Politics Home Survey of 1,406 )’
