Saturday, April 04, 2009

There Will Be Blood

This is “my bit” ,of our thing .On this fragile raft when the ships biscuits run out ,they aint there , simple, and if loans were available it would be a mixed blessing, because its hard to make the changes when there is an option.Cherished dreams must be sacrificed .. old friends made redundant ...unpleasant conversations had .It has been bloody but we are getting there
Amongst the haunted sons of Martha ,on the train ,cuts are often discussed ,but these usually turn out to have been long in the tubes . Le Crunch has been part excuse and part tipping point . Systems , I believe ,only change at such times .Gradual Darwinian evolution has evolved (sic), in Etheridge and Gould`s ,‘Interrupted Equilibrium’, model, periods of statis interrupted by bursts of “speciation” are predicted . Most of the time pressurres in the breeding population prevent change ,and my observation leads me to think this is agenerally applicable pattern .Change happens in jerks ,the longer the stop , the bloodier.

Inertia is a mighty force . Example .A friend is involved in merging ‘Help The Aged' with ‘Age Concern’ . These two charities are like any business for our purposes employing 2500, soon to be somewhat less .They compete with Saga in the oldster biz and a lovely market it is . The devil resides in his usual abode though ,white board missions must be translated into intricate reality ,and no-one either knows what they are doing or likes it .After a period of wound licking there a nippier beast will emerge but ...there must be blood and necessity is the knife .
So why are we avoiding necessity ?Behind the borrow and print money strategy lurks the a metaphor from Fantasy Island " The plane , boss the plane ".If it gets below a certain speed it will fall out of the sky, they say, as it did in the 30s.Demand and employment are ,mysteriously, the only thing that matters . Less demand= less productive capacity = less employment = less demand etc. in an implosive cycle which sounds plausible ,but is it true ? Expanding the base supply of cash must also sustain the unsustainable and send the bloated credit drunk to the bar . 'Deflation 'they say,' oooga booga boo', but why so scary ? Deflation is a symptom of over valuation , a fact not a fear. We lived with creeping inflation so why not the reverse .We clearly need it having experienced over heated property ,investments and wages . I see it as a fortunate fall ,applying discipline to the utterly ignored side of the price equation .Supply. It forces change .
I am tired of hearing that scattering magic beans will help? Suppose we are not in a plane , suppose it’s a sinking ship and we ought to be exiting fatties and rowing . Better to know soon than continue our game of Bridge below deck
.In my gut I think what would have happened was adjustment followed by confidence, and investment. You can print as much confetti money as you like it no-one will spend it on over priced rubbish . and the only thing that will save us is the underlying strength of the global economy . I fear that after what has been done that may not be enough.
Fortunately there are so many economic gurus that if you fish in the lucky dip for long enough you will find one who says what your gut was saying anyway.I have found Thorsten Polleit at the Luwig Von Mises Institue . There will be hyper inflation , there will be blood .Curdle up and listen


Auntie Flo' said...

That joke of Brown's when his mobile phone rang in the middle of one of his speeches said it all:

"Hahahahaha, not another bank gone down, hahahahahahaha"

He's loving this recession. Sees it as an opportunity to make even bigger power grabs towards the biggest grab of all.

The vast debt he has created is meaningless to him. He is utterly disengaged from the reality of the massive damage he's done and utterly clueless about and divorced from the realities of life for the businesses and people of UK.

We're all just pawns in his big game plan. Does that include and election? I doubt it.

Newmania said...

He does of course love the recession Flo , revolting isn`t it

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