Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Our Changing Bus

In 20 years the English white ethnic group will reach the end of a 1000 years in which they have been the majority in England . I have invented a bus with 30 people on it that you might have got on this morning and this is the way it will look now and in 2027 assuming current rates of change.

Bus 2007
30 people
24 White English (80%)

Bus 2027
34 People
17 White English (50%)

Bus 2047
38 people
8 White English (21%)

Show Your Working

There was a net emigration of 107000 British and a net immigration of 292000 other ethnicities last year. This was in my recent boring stat mine, and based on government figures that may well be underestimates. .In the population 560000 arrive and 380000 leave annually so there is a net migration of 180,000 but the first figure is what people are really worried about because it is the coherence and integrity of the national culture that is perceived as threatened.

The Changing Mix On The Bus Of England

Call. England a bus of 30 people . As , in the 2001 census Eighty-seven per cent of the population of England gave their ethnic origin as White British we’ll say , and this is out of date , 26 of the 30 bus travellers are ethnically English. Population is, according to the government ,rising overall at 285000 per year. And the population of England is 50,000000. I have to guess here but my guess is that practically all that rise is in England certainly Scotland has been depopulating until very recently. In bus terms then you get a new passenger every five years more or less.
By net ethnic change by immigration alone but one member of the bus ( to make it simple )changes from black to white every 4.1 years In twenty years then the bus will have 34 people on it of which 9 are now “other ethnicities” .
However this does not include the vastly different rates of population growth of ethnic minorities. In fact English are replacing themselves at the staggeringly low rate of 1.4. In twenty years then by sheer non breeding the replacement rate is about 1.52 or 76 % so the bus will actually have in twenty years.2007, 30 People of whom are 26 White English By 2027 34 People 19 of whom White English
In fact the 26 is the position at 2001 not 2007 . The change in proportion is also moderated by the assumption that population growth is all in England but I want to err on the side of caution. If we project the rate of change of proportion ( which we now know ) back and then recalculate the probable position at 2007.In 20 years the proportion of white English changes from 26/30 to 19./34 which is 86 % to 55 % or 1 and a half % per year ( in bus terms o.45) 2.7 actually so I’ll call it 2 again to err on the side of caution
So the true position roughly and as far as I can work out is as I have mentioned above
I appreciate of course that there are assumptions here but the basic figures are solid and the maths is just schoolboy stuff . I have moreover tried to drift towards the Conservative as I have gone through. I have shown the working any criticisms are easily made the final interation is aonly a bit of fun really as the peeiod is toom long .Is this a bad thing or a good thing . I would say it should be handled carefully and slowing the rate of change is clearly a sensible response


Ed said...

What's interesting is that there are "pockets" of varying concentrations. Such as in the inner-south-east of London one can get on a bus which is racially homogeneous.

CityUnslicker said...

One small factor which may or may not make a difference is who is coming.

To my mind, catholic east europeans will be absorbed within a generation; as opposed to very foreign cultures such as islamists or pakistani/sudanese villagers who will take much longer.

To say we are English is a not quite historically true since 1066 anyway; many cultures have affected ours and become subsumed.

But the scale of the current change is much too fast to be sustainable and your example here is one I shall use elsewhere.

I think in some ways there is a similarity to climate change here. Some change is natural; the is recognising when the change is beyond natural and needs more active management.

Philipa said...

Excellent post N and like to pick up on the excellent comment from CU - we are essentially a Christian culture and can absorb christian Europeans more easily than those from cultures whose habits and belief systems are so foreign from our own. Like your analogy to climate change CU.

Newmania said...

CU and P , are of coutse saying the unsayable . Tha Australians are ok but Africans are not ...BUT if cultural coherence is the problem then this is obviously true ....

That is part of the problem

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