Monday, March 16, 2009

The Mid Term Blues Myth

Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report has been pouring cold water on Labours last hope , that they have mid term blues . He says …..

So looking at past years, there is a big government recovery in 1992 ... but it is caused by changing a leader. In 2005 and 2001 there is no significant recovery at all. Only in 1997 do we see a government clamber back from its very worst ratings and stage something of a recovery and, as we know, it wasn't nearly enough to win. What is true is that governments have always recovered from their very worst position – in every case its possible to cherry pick some awful moment of hideous unpopularity from which the government recovered, but that's no great surprise (for starters, in most cases the most extreme outlying poll results were probably rogues anyway). What it doesn't mean is that one can take any mid-term (or now late-term) position and assume the government must do better.
(Wells also makes the point that, if government poll ratings appear to go up before an election, that might just be because governments call elections when their ratings are going up, not the other way round.)

I have long thought that we are actually in a high plateau of Labour support for all that they are clearly finished as far as govening is concerned for a while.

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