The ComRes survey for The Independent puts the Tories on 43 per cent (up four points on last month), Labour on 28 per cent (down six), the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent (unchanged) and other parties on 13 per cent (up two). The research shows Labour at its lowest standing since September's survey; the party has slumped back to where it stood before Mr Brown won international plaudits for the Government's rescue of the banks last autumn.
The figures would give David Cameron an overall majority of 120 if repeated at a general election.
The figures would give David Cameron an overall majority of 120 if repeated at a general election.
Much gnashing of teeth in the hugely over populated world of Labour spinners (Press Officers up 75 % says a Lords report ). 'Where did we go wrong ?' 'Why are we not getting our narrative over' , and all that old bollocks which I usually ignore . On this occasion I felt the urge to remind these hot house flowers of the world beyond their pin head dancing court of sensitive exquisites. Arse face about it , they have as Yoda would say.
What they do not see here is that Brown is still doing remarkably well in the polls for a leader who was detested in a boom . They have forgotten that if by some miracle Brown both handled the problems well and argued his way out of the fact he caused it as well he would be back where he was. He was respected as a sound Chancellor but overall disliked because he was a tax and spend socialist . That’s the starting point , not a make believe popular Brown. Not a make believe popular Labour Party whose default position has been getting shown the door since Blair and before.
What is happening here is that what has already been over egged as a ‘crisis ‘ by Brown ( its not that bad come on…..) , they are using the storm to avoid asking more fundamental question about Labour and how it is they have lost the confidence of the country . This is a, long term problem not a daily narrative fight .The problem of the low pound and the rising debt are keyed into the last ten years at least whereas their strategies only deal with a whose best argument most people ignore .
People are not unhappy with Brown as a man qualified to steer the ship . That is why he is doing much better than he ought to be . They do, however, recognise that we would be far better off if he had not presided over the shift of our economy to unproductive sinecures, and suspect he is hiding a tax bombshell in borrowing . This will be worse than it might have been because he is still a tax and spend socialist . There is a also a retrospective re-reading of what was his Ace , the man who delivered sustainable boom. This is now obviously a lie and it was largely an illusion built on debt . By fiddling with the headlines they are avoiding the heavy lifting.
If they think Labour has a chance of winning the next election they should stop obsessing with alternatively accusing Conservative of doing nothing and doing the wrong thing .They do not have to do anything and it bores people. they should go back to basics and appreciate that Labour has to solve the electoral problem that existed before this . Too much tax ,too much ordering everyone around,too much hated progressivism,too much favouring of the Public Sector,too Scottish,too European. Labour have to stop being the Party who hates you if you are working white married and ordinary That is the problem Blair solved and it will still be there when this "crisis " is over. Labour do not like the polls , they would like them alot less if prosperity returned
What is happening here is that what has already been over egged as a ‘crisis ‘ by Brown ( its not that bad come on…..) , they are using the storm to avoid asking more fundamental question about Labour and how it is they have lost the confidence of the country . This is a, long term problem not a daily narrative fight .The problem of the low pound and the rising debt are keyed into the last ten years at least whereas their strategies only deal with a whose best argument most people ignore .
People are not unhappy with Brown as a man qualified to steer the ship . That is why he is doing much better than he ought to be . They do, however, recognise that we would be far better off if he had not presided over the shift of our economy to unproductive sinecures, and suspect he is hiding a tax bombshell in borrowing . This will be worse than it might have been because he is still a tax and spend socialist . There is a also a retrospective re-reading of what was his Ace , the man who delivered sustainable boom. This is now obviously a lie and it was largely an illusion built on debt . By fiddling with the headlines they are avoiding the heavy lifting.
If they think Labour has a chance of winning the next election they should stop obsessing with alternatively accusing Conservative of doing nothing and doing the wrong thing .They do not have to do anything and it bores people. they should go back to basics and appreciate that Labour has to solve the electoral problem that existed before this . Too much tax ,too much ordering everyone around,too much hated progressivism,too much favouring of the Public Sector,too Scottish,too European. Labour have to stop being the Party who hates you if you are working white married and ordinary That is the problem Blair solved and it will still be there when this "crisis " is over. Labour do not like the polls , they would like them alot less if prosperity returned
13 comments:
I take most of your points, especially that Blair reached out beyond Labour's core vote, though he shouldn't have done as he was as much of a twat as Brown.
What I have to object to is your statement that people who are married face discrimination. The worst discrimination in the tax & benefit system is in favour of those with children & against the childless.
You may not be aware of this, as you work & have a reasonable income, but there are staggering amounts of benefits payable to anyone with a child. If you & your "partner" stopped work you could get several hundred pounds a week on top of housing & council tax benefit. We're emphatically not talking about subsistence level.
A person who earns the minimum wage may get tax credits (though it barely compensates for tax), but not as much as someone with 3 children who is jobless. The tax credit system is more around child tax credit than working tax credit.
I do not want the youngsters to lose out: does anyone? But Labour exploit this compassion for political reasons. It doesn't help anyone that the state subsidises large families whose parents cannot pay for them.
Why don't we recognise that having children is a choice, & is one you shouldn't make if you can't provide for them?
A young single person who lives with his parents is virtually always better off having a job, unless they charge him an absolute load in board. But for people with children, or in rented accomodation, it gets messy very quickly.
They want to make people dependent on Labour at the bottom, just as they do at the top with quangocracy, PFI & contracts being handed out left right & centre to those idiots such as the fuckwits running the ID cards scheme.
I do not know whether it is possible to withdraw benefits from people. It would probably be better to reduce the demand for the state over a long period: I agree with Cameron on this, as much as I don't share his methods.
If Cameron wins the next election I dare say I'll be berating him as much, or almost as much, as Brown. I must be hard to please, like.
"The worst discrimination in the tax & benefit system" amongst the working class, I should have said. Above around £20,000 a year it isn't so noticeable. But I see a lot in this city & when I used to do voluntary work there was a load. Actually, doing voluntary work is a good way to turn any thinking person against statism...
Also I have a shite job myself. I'm just glad not to be on benefits, & that work doesn't take over my life so I can still be myself when I'm not in the workplace.
Also, funnily enough, I am a council tenant. My mate managed to get himself housed because he was on income support with depression (genuine, & he's now recovered & has a job). I thought it was the only chance I was likely to get of moving out of my parents' house so I got myself on registered as a joint tenant.
It's very strange to hear people talking about the minimum wage, social housing, estates & what have you, & for me to join in, while at the same time it's my life that is under discussion. But I try to be objective, like.
PS- Sorry for battering your head with all these comments :)
I always like Asquith's posts, not that I always agree. Its just that they has a balance about them.
As for Mr Brown ..
Uuhmm. Head Dick he is. The Farce is strong with this one.
I agree with you Quango that is rather fascinating comment from Asquith. My income is reasonable but thats all . We have no luxuries , an old car and an ordinary house
To put it another way there is enormous temptation to become a single mother...I do believe that Peter Lilley once put such people ona little list and it did not go down well
( The Farce ,... fantastic ))
I didn't say you were wealthy, I just meant you don't qualify for these benefits & may not be aware of their full extent.
I myself do not get working tax credit (due to being under 25, a bag of shite rule if ever there was one), & obviously don't get child tax credit as I am single. I probably won't bother to get tax credits if I'm still in a low-paid job at 25 as the risk of overpayment is there.
Another problem is in pensions. Poor pensioners get a lot more than those with savings & occupational pensions, which I suppose is well-meaning in that it tries to make sure no one is extremely poor, but sends out the wrong signals.
PS-
I haven't got a car & in fact can't drive :)
The tax and benefit system is skewed against marriage.
The latest innitiative is to confiscate the passports of deadbeat dads.
Colleagues of mine are paying the CSA £200 per month which means that as divorced/estranged parents they are better off financially.
The incentive is there to give up and walk away.
Saw that EK , I hate it !
Asquith talks of a honey pot for parents on benefits and please I would love to find it. Can you please tell me where to get it?
Or do you have to rent, which I think is what you mean?
Dear Newms, do you not very occasionally think of those long summer days at university when all we did was think and drink and write and argue? I'm glad they happened and smile at the memory :-)
I wonder what you looked like - do you have a picture?
You need to have low/zero work income before you can get these benefits, as they are means tested. I must say I am turning quite a bit against the means test, as it always ends up having unintended consequences. We all realised that trying to be nice & cuddly isn't the best way of "helping" people.
Yes, also housing/council tax benefit.
My granddad gets just about every benefit going because he always did shite jobs & didn't get any savings or a pension. Funnily enough my parents would be in the same position if they hadn't exercised their right to buy, & once they had paid their mortgage moved to a (very slightly) nicer area. I remember, it surprised me to see so many people going to work in the morning & having a car.
I am not nostalgic for the pre-1979 period by any means. But it did teach me to set up my own pension plan. Even when I was out of work, I still added some money to my scheme every week. You'll have a properly shite time when you're old, otherwise.
Asquith I am a single parent on income support due to illness. I do, however, own my own home due to working very hard before ill health occured. I struggle to make ends meet and I mean I struggle to pay the mortgage, pay service bills, the basics. I am sliding ever deeper in debt. I hardly ever go out - only when at my parents and that is very rarely, about once or twice a year. Holidays are courtesy of them too and it's nothing remotely posh. I don't have my nails done, buy furniture, none of that. So please tell me - if it's means tested I will qualify; where is this wonderful bandwagon I can get on?
I have a reasonable salary and we struggle no stop , we will be ok when both are working but there is not alot spare
Its odd I have been looking around at all the xpesnive cars I have seen for years thinking how on earth do they afford it
Now we know
Philippa, do you get child tax credits? Go to a Citizens' Advice Bureau & enquire, like.
Sorry, I thought originally you were being sarcastic in some way. But income support needn't be your only source of income.
It isn't a luxury lifestyle, none of the single parents I know enjoy that. But they have these systems in place to stop anyone being destitute.
I am fairly sure you can get some form of relief on your mortgage. As I said, just phone up Citizens' Advice. They will run your details through their benefit checking computer. It is very clever.
I used to volunteer there, like.
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