Thursday, January 10, 2008

Poll Dancing

Dewey Defeats Truman"..oops

Opinion Polls were also famously wrong over Major and I wonder if they are any better now . There seems little reason to think so.Chris Morris in Brass Eye did a spoof vox pop when he asked for people’s opinions about "Soul Reversal" Despite the transparent gibberish of the question punters gaily opinined this way and that, some for , some against.

So that is one problem with Polls, it is exceedingly difficult to isolate doorstep opinion or indeed unravel conflicting views on , say , tax and services .People may be far more serious in the quiet confessional of the voting booth and Major’s triumph was a good proof of that.

The received wisdom is that you can blow of the froth and underneath its the economy stupid, I `m not so sure .The perception people have of the economy is a very different thing to the reality .Most people are little better off than ten years ago but the endless repetition of 'growth', and the memory of the preceding and utterly different periods prior to the late 80s still ensure relative calm is something small c Conservatives value. Niall Ferguson’s` Cash Nexus demolishes any easy linkage between good times and votes in reality.

Surely they use sophisticated methods now though you say...They do , but they can only look back to test them. Immigration stats are based on interviewing one man and his dog and asking ‘what he reckons’. They extrapolate with extreme sophistication from past trends ( it would hardly be future trends) and adjust on base figures . This is why they are hopeless at spotting accelerations and were badly out. For all their cunning Pollsters do not foresee the future, they adjust the past.

After Hilary Clinton’s come back we might recall when we discuss Polls endlessly for the next two years , that they are an act of faith for the political nerd right from the off, and may well mean very little . I expect President Dewey wished it were otherwise .


Anonymous said...

Have a look at the latest hot topic on BBC's Have Your Say - comments on the suggested system of presuming that we are in favour of donating our organs after death unless we opt out.

People are going mental over this. The reason: we don't trust Broon and he's being (rightly) accused of all manner of sinister motives for this policy.

Day after day, topic after topic, the HYS forum becomes an avenue for the majority to vent their rage on Broon.

Whatever the subject - it's Gordon'd fault. I've never seen so much hatred of a Prime Minister.

Trust me, n, he is a dead man walking.

Auntie Flo'

Anonymous said...

I have sent my TV remote control to Gordon Brown. I'll let him decide what I should watch.

Can't think for myself, Birmingham


What next? Assume everyone wants to vote Labour unless they specifically say otherwise?

This is the kind of legislation that Saddam Hussein might have come up with.
I object to Gordon Brown deciding to take my organs without any consent. I think this is against the democracy.
Until now I would not have minded someone getting my organs but
I''ll certainly be opting out of donating if Gordon Brown tries to impose it on me on the principle that anything he says must be wrong
Has Brown gone barking mad. First he is not elected as a PM now he decides what happens to my organs if i die. Your getting above your station Brown.
It's nothing more than legalised theft. The State does not own my body..This government gets scarier every day.
So Gordon ‘Frankenstein’ Brown truly is after our hearts and minds.....
Absolutely Not! The state will not presume that they can steal from my body when I die
I carry a donor card but if this becomes Law I will change it to an opt out card. I'm sick of this control freakery government, meddling,interfering all the time.Sooner they're turfed out the better.
You're a healthy person knocked down and in a coma in hospital. There's a fair chance you'll recover but, hey, those are some mightily healthy looking kidneys, heart and liver you've got there and we're currently in need of organs for your blood type............ ...
Welcome to Brown's 21st Century Britain.
What Gordon Brownis talking about for a system of 'Presmed Consent' is outrageous
Just typical of control freak Brown to start dictating how we should treat our dead - when what needed is a bit of sympathetic counseling to the next of kin.
Please do not let Gordon Brown donate any of his body parts as we might have to put up with another chancellor or PM like him!

I decide if I donate my organs - not some stalinist in Downing street! They tax you an arm and a leg and then when you die they want your organs!

Gordon Brown you are out of touch and hopefully soon out of a job!
Please resign and call an election now

Auntie Flo'

Anonymous said...

Another HYS:

What size collar are you Mr Brown? You have bled me dry since you have been in office, now you want my body after I die, so you may as well have my shirt !! I have little else left.

ps. Please don't be offended but I won't be voting for you in the next general election.


Auntie Flo'

Anonymous said...

And another:

I can just see the headlines now, "Government loses 25m human organs".

Auntie Flo'

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