Friday, July 20, 2007

Forget Ealing , The Future is Bright



. Feeling a little flat after the disappointing Ealing result ? The answer , as so often in life , is to listen to Homer Simpson.
We are in what Homer called that" Glorious period between the telling of a lie and being found out “.Brown has somehow managed to give the impression he was not here for the last ten years and that he is a moderate almost rightish politician .I have reported that the continued purring of the left is not for nothing, and subterraneously ,the empire is already attacking academies and privatisation of the NHS. Brown is still a socialist and he will be unable to pretend otherwise for long .The lie told to the people on the EU is also starting to unravel with news that our seat at the UN and the security Council may now be occupied by a High Representative .Ealing fell in the middle of the Brown honeymoon and with and electorate that is scarcely representative of the country (although Labour would like it to be ..). The unfortunate last minute Press may not have helped but the Brown factor was the main issue .

The grand lie will soon also be found out .That is that taxes can be increased passengers carried and noone pay . Our bloated state sector contains thousands if non jobs that Brown cannot cut . OCD data tells us the state sector at 45 % is now bigger than Germany’s and Sterling will soon come under pressure. The housing market is set to “readjust “ . We have a current account deficit of 3.45 % when we should not and off balance sheet borrowing of gathering a storm for future generations. The US is looking less clever When the housing market cools the interest rates that have propped up Sterling`s stability will be gone and the magic of the having your cake and eating it will begin to evaporate .

Callaghan’s 14% inflation and Major`s ERM we will not get but at the moment Brown is living on easily borrowed credit in his party and in the country. If he was wise he would go for an early election , as things can only get worse for him and are bound to do so,. Conservatives must resist undermining David Cameron who may need to stiffen his attack over the Summer but has the strategy right in that Conservative have to stay in the centre.

There are many reasons to be cheerful about the prospects for the future Ealing is an odd constituency at an odd time and it is to Cameron`s credit at this point that things were not worse. There is a simple fact, Brown is able to rule the Labour Party like a War Lord because the left trust that he is misrepresenting his intentions to the electorate. Such a fragile position cannot withstand sustained attack and with economic wobbles ahead we will soon see that Brown is having a picnic in the eye of the storm .

It may even be a good thing . The Cornerstone , constituency of the Parliamentary and greater Party , who I like personally , have not been helping . We have been sharing the cake before there is one . This cold bath of reality may assist the long overdue waking up process. We are past the time when we can afford passengers . If we are going to challenge the Brown Empire the Party has to realise that Weimarish debating has to stop.


Prepare to win , Prepare for Government

29 comments:

Ed said...

It's good to have debate about policy and strategy, but only in a way that doesn't undermine the party as a whole. I think the Right should trust DC as the Left trust Brown...

Newmania said...

I can`t see any reason not to Ed

istanbultory said...

Ealing and Sedgefield....not exactly ours for the taking.Gordon Brown's poor record as chancellor is gradually becoming more obvious.
I am not sure if we are on the path to government though....

Newmania said...

Nor am I IT but another presidential Brown period would be a disaster .There has to be opposition at least

mutleythedog said...

Mock the Week should be re-titled Manky and Weak. It was mostly rubbish.

As for the by-elections - well no ne expected the Tories to win did they? Oh for crying out loud...

Newmania said...

Exactly Muttley...U thoight Mock the week was really good the first two anyway,

Ed said...

I don't either N, but lots of people in that part of the party which thinks that we should return to the 1950s think he is selling out to socialism. He isn't - he's just trying to appeal to people outside the rump of the party and applying Conservative values to "the modern world". I think if he ever gets into office those critics will soon be won over but that may not be soon enough.

Forward not back, to recycle a phrase.

Newmania said...

It is the only way to go Ed. It was always , in truth , going to be awfully difficult to get ris of brown with the economy in a goodish state. I personally think , Cameron has done pretty much everything right .

Bob Piper said...

*hug*

Newmania said...

One 'ha' for you Piper

Chris Paul said...

*hug*

Newmania said...

,,,sigh....

Tim said...

*hug*

Newmania said...

Would you be a sweety and fuck off Tim. Yeeesh

Arthurian Legend said...

Newmania, you're living in cloud cookoo land.

Cameron from the start decided not to argue for a mix of radical Thatcherite and libertarian Conservative policies on the crucial areas that both matter to the public and separate the parties.

1.tax (he should have shown how he could cut it substantially and what he would have cut)
2.health (he should have shown how other models of provision can complement NHS treatment, whilst stopping health tourism)
3.immigration (he should have promised to reduce it to 10% of the current rates)
4.the EU (he should have set out 10 areas where Britain will reassert sovereignty to the economic and democratic advantge of the country)
5.welfare (he should have promised to cut it and make it subject to work requirements for the able)

He has presented partly the right policies on education, but has not had the courage to spell out the implications to the socialists and to his own side.

Only radical policies will address the problems the country faces: much short of that will both leave the problems unsolved and present too little contrast with Brown and Labour.

Because Cameron set his face from the start against radical policies that would actually work in the crucial areas outlined above, he is already a marked man. Any tough talk now will be both unconvincing and will shatter his credibility as someone who argued against my type of policies from the start. He was deliberately deceitful when he implied that my type of policy prescriptions have been tried and failed: they have never been put with sustained force, clarity and conviction by any Tory leader since Thatcher departed (and she only honed the message in Statecraft - 11 years too late.)

Labour will be biggest single party in the next Parliament, but possibly just short of a (workable) majority. Cameron will live on and may get it in 2014 by default, but without having fought and won the argument clearly, plainly and squarely.

Newmania said...

AL you are dealing in wish fulfilment . The "Clear Blue Water" approach had been tried and has failed. Cameron has all the seats that such policies can win in his pocket and the geographical distribution of the Constituencies is such that to make progress he has to camp in the middle .I disagree with you that he has set his face against such policies . He has set his face against them to nothing like the same extent that Blair set his face against tax rises for example and left plenty of wiggle room , for which you have, no doubt , also criticised him. You may recall what the Labour lie machine did to the last promises of tax cuts
Margaret Thatcher ,as you correctly point out got in on a far milder and more inclusive platform than retrospectively invented and developed her views whilst in Power. More correctly . such views became widely shared especially on Europe where scepticism has moved in from the extreme to the main stream on the right Nonetheless in that she offered clear break it was acceptable only in the light of the blackest days I can remember for the country under Callaghan.
Peace and affluence are not things the British lightly grade for ideology and , despite the swollen public sector and ghastly administrative burdens faced the economy has done well by our historical standards .I think you have the picture out of proportion , this is because you are dashing and youthful and winsome and ….a bit thickJ. I am old and wise and recall just how much better things are now than they have been. There is not a call for a radical change . Cameron on the other hand has given plenty of hints on tax..” Sharing the proceeds of growth …simplification….”

I appreciate it is a an astonishing thing to see Gordon brown step to one side and become New Gordon Brown to such effect , but this will not last. Ealing was also a bit of a cock up but it is an odd place at a very bad time . I must say I `m not sure what the total message is on welfare . A promise to cut it is obviously suicidal but he has promised to “Get the family right” this is about a “ Multigenerational readjustment” . personally I thought that was the right balance .

Behind all this is the the Geographical distribution of marginal seats . The truth is that Ealings and Sedsgefields do not count . The way the votes have coalesced together makes the FPTP system highly concentrated on certain small centre groups , 800,000 of them to which such an aggressive line would be an anathema.

I do not despair . Winning the GE outright was always going to be very difficult as serious commentators have all consistently agreed . Providing a strong challenge and continuing to rehabilitate the Conservative name is vital and the position of Scotland make a Constitutional crisis inevitable at a relatively low level of seats . Tapestry has some interesting thoughts on Sedgefield and the rate of l\oss of votes to small Parties on the left especially the BNP.

Taken in all there is nothing in your prescription I would demur at and nor would DC , it’s a disagreement about how to get there and at what rate such a change can be accomplished . There is your problem , what are you going to do .Vote Labour , do you seriously think Brown isn’t in hock to the left of the labour Constituency . Iu might look back at my blog on the signs already there . You vote is clear and this is why there s no need for DC to move further out that way , he cannot be out flanked there , not by a long way.

Surely you can see this is true ?

Newmania said...

..and anuvver thing have a look at how Thatch did as these two seats at her Landslides. It is less relevant than it appears

Arthurian Legend said...

You say, 'The "Clear Blue Water" approach had been tried and has failed.' No! That is not the case. This is what the lefties say in order to promote their agenda.

Hague spoke nonsense about being "in Europe but not run by Europe", which fooled very few. IDS was largely silent on the issue (except calling for a euro ref on the constitution and opposing abolishing the pound - big deal). Howard said some stuff about fishing but made clear his attachment to the EU. Given the massive destruction of democracy that had happened under three previous Tory leaders, this was pissing in the wind, frankly. There has never been a full and frank recognition and apology by the Tory leadership for what went on in the past - and so nothing they say now without fully recognising that strikes me and would probably strike many others as insincere.

To think about it purely in terms of "clear blue water" is slightly missing the point. My advantage over you is having been outside the Tory party and indeed not really ever supporting it until early-mid 2005. I was therefore able to see it more clearly and guauge public sentiment towards it more accurately than paid-up supporters. And I just don't buy the thesis that we were too "right wing" or eurosceptic: we were seen as incompetent, devoid of ideas, divided, having sold out on certain core Tory issues and being without an attractive and competent leader. Cameron might be attractive, but he doesn't yet tick the other boxes necessary to get genuine sympathisers with a radical Conservative programme out voting.

Anonymous said...

..and anuvver thing have a look at how Thatch did as these two seats at her Landslides. It is less relevant than it appears """"

ahem, except that parties on the path to number 10 do very substantially better in by elections (regardless of the seat) than they actually do at a subsequent general election.Unless their vote is squeezed to remove the incumbent party. The fact is;Labour held both seats comfortably and the Tory vote flatlined.It's pointless attempting to spin the results as anything other than a setback for Cameron and the Conservatives, as today's newspapers prove.

Gary Elsby stoke said...

Hug

Gary
ho ho ho ho

Newmania said...

The fact is;Labour held both seats comfortably and the Tory vote flatlined.It's pointless attempting to spin the results as anything other than a setback for Cameron and the Conservatives, as today's newspapers prove.

The set back came with the previous weekends Polls which showed the Brown Bounce solidifying on a 7 percent lead . Thats why Cameron invested so heavily . He was hoping to ambush Brown early but was in no place to do so at the time . Of course its bad news bu the polls themselves were not new bad news indeed such a position has been foreseen for at least a year. It all depends now on what happens . The Conservatives could do with catching a break but they will be competitive in the marginals. Brown would love them to change tack
What has happened in the past is little guide to the future the number of swing voters and their geographical distribution bunched up and Cameron’s who strategy has been to appeal to the right people . With his ,marketing background he is able to target the messages much more effectively and unlovely though it may be it was New Labour that created this monster
All that was really lost here was the perception of expectations . None of this means that a good show would not have been a lot better , but mo cause to despair wt this point. The longer Brown goes on the more chance we have . I think he will make a run for it …but who knows there is something rather cowardly about him and he is clearly not up to facing David Cameron in debate .

Newmania said...

The word *hug* is banned from this blog.

Newmania said...

You say, 'The "Clear Blue Water" approach had been tried and has failed.' No! That is not the case. This is what the lefties say in order to promote their agenda.

Hague spoke nonsense about being "in Europe but not run by Europe", which fooled very few. IDS was largely silent on the issue (except calling for a euro ref on the constitution and opposing abolishing the pound - big deal). Howard said some stuff about fishing but made clear his attachment to the EU. Given the massive destruction of democracy that had happened under three previous Tory leaders, this was pissing in the wind, frankly. There has never been a full and frank recognition and apology by the Tory leadership for what went on in the past - and so nothing they say now without fully recognising that strikes me and would probably strike many others as insincere.



By clear Blue water you clearly think I am referring to leaving the EU when there has been a shrinking but strong support for the EU within the Party. This water has been murky indeed. . The Common Market was seen as he force of business and a force for international order, in the Party, but even more in the broad professional constituency the Conservatives have to represent . You always talk as if an evil conspiracy was what took us and kept us in . I can understand it ,but you fail to acknowledge that a small c Conservatives liked the EU and felt relative indifference to the parliamentary structures of this country. I see a lot of this changing as our institutions reach their death throws there is neo con mood in this country that is making arguments once thought consigned to absurdist drama respectable again ! I indeed I have very much followed this middle way myself .

.Conservatives have a history of supporting orderly negotiation through settled powers in Europe going back at least to Castlereigh and for very good Conservative reason that a bad order is better than none . You are always on the side of the Libertarian and the romantic in foreign Policy but you are not typical of Tory voters especially in the past .
I have an advantage over you in that I have spent many many more years not being especially interested in politics at all ! That is the state of the overwhelming majority and you find it very hard to emphasize with their disinterest in what appears an arcane dispute about constitutional matters . The delivery of wealth and services is all that really matters to most.
As I say, I feel this is changing and Polls certainly show that it is but the point I am making is that you are asking previous Conservative leaders to have adopted Policies that would have been far beyond the consensus of their own support on this matter at the time . You are unreasonably harsh on them

The spectre of internal dissension was also far more important reminding voters of the hopeless state of the Party in 97 when I and many others decided there was absolutely no point in voting for people who could not control themselves . UKIP ism came to stand for backward looking attitudes , the mythically detested Thatcher period and this is largely the fault of UKIP and its Conservative sympathisers who are indeed often deluded old and curmudgeonly . It is also , more importantly the fault of the BBC and the conspiracy of EU bodies that use our money to persuade is in many ways . ‘Out’ has to be the modern way and it is becoming more so as the global perspective grips the nations psyche. I was in fact talking to someone who was doing some PR for UKIP and we agreed very much this point . There is no significant political constituency is going backwards , even if backwards is occasionally the way you have to go .
Euro scepticism is now the default position of Conservatives but there is much in Conservative tradition to make this not the case. This fact of the Conservative relationship to the EU debate being a shifting one is often used by the left to undermine our complaints about their betrayal over the Constitution . Look at Maastricht they will say and if we did not know that views have solidified and changed one might have to accept that one was in an untenable position . This I cheap conjuring trick , an attempt to trap the Party into what it once was over its voting record. Tedious political factoid collectors often miss the broad context of opinion in which such votes took place. A far as Cameron is concerned he is somewhat beyond the politically wise on Europe in my estimation .


To think about it purely in terms of "clear blue water" is slightly missing the point. My advantage over you is having been outside the Tory party and indeed not really ever supporting it until early-mid 2005. I was therefore able to see it more clearly and guauge public sentiment towards it more accurately than paid-up supporters. And I just don't buy the thesis that we were too "right wing" or eurosceptic: we were seen as incompetent, devoid of ideas, divided, having sold out on certain core Tory issues and being without an attractive and competent leader. Cameron might be attractive, but he doesn't yet tick the other boxes necessary to get genuine sympathisers with a radical Conservative programme out voting.



As I have mentioned I have the advantage over you in having been uncommitted for far longer .I have also Pointe out the obvious reasons why there are no seats in moving to the right and relatively few votes. It may well be that this entails large swathes of opinion being disenfranchised by regional variation under a FPTP system . I am unconvinced that it is still not better than the alternatives and I would point out that the New Statesman makes that same point about the far left every week

One point is that working class Conservative sympathisers will not vote Conservative for tribal reasons . Brown has dreaded that his ability to drift rightwards and carry the old Labour constituency might be rumbled and there are signs that the BNP is starting to make significant headway in Labour areas .Another point is we cannot win without t support in te Public Services and state subsidised sector . Its about occupying the centre and shifting it
Above all there is this . If “Progressive” opinion as conceived in the Liberal and Labour Party are going to be permanently out of power with the accession of Scotland and even if not . They are likely to combine against the right in some form. The right has to be able to accommodate more shades of opinion in an alliance and you

Arthurian legend


Are a SPLITTER

Anonymous said...

*hug*

tony said...

*hugs & sighs*

electro-kevin said...

And consider the good condition of the economy when Brown first took over.

Thus far the guy has got away with murrrrderrr (best Taggart impersonation). Paul Dacre of the Daily Mail has been up his arse for years. One of the few pleasures in the forthcoming crapulations will be watching the bastard squirm when the wheel starts coming off. He may be assured of the Biggest Tosser in British Political History Award yet.

Now what about the arch villain of the peace - Blair ?

Newmania said...

EK I think you are right , the whole thing is held together by the prodigious affluence of the Global ecomnomy which we benefit from less than most but still there is a benefit .

Some choppy water and the wheels will be found to be held on with spit and hope

Ed said...

the wheels will be found to be held on with spit and hope

Sounds like the Central line.

The Conservatives have to modernise - it's that or split or shrink. I know which I prefer.

Labour did a magnificent move from being a party of the principled Left to accepting the "new" free market Britain. The Conservatives have to move from being a party of the principled Right to accepting the "new" easy-going socially liberal Britain which thinks the government should spend lots of money if we can get good public services.

The cliche about being a right-wing debating society is all too true.

Change to Win. Win for Britain!

Newmania said...

Go Ed , and to follow the labour analogy further what do we find ten years down the line . the country has shifted left taxes are rocketing and we are beyond Germany is state control of our lives

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