Enough of my wibbling anyone who looks in go straight to the abode of Mr. Unslicker. He is not one to dramatise and if he says Armageddon , Armageddon out of here . His best ever post and tells the story behind the story. Its scary stuff but we might as well know
10 comments:
From Transport Minister, Tom Harris's blog:
" An excellent meeting yesterday between Scottish MPs and representatives of Scottish Chambers of Commerce. Some genuine concerns expressed by business leaders, but also a realism and determination to succeed. One warned that we’re in danger of talking ourselves into a recession."
"....But recession isn’t around the corner, and the word should never be used as shorthand for any economic downturn. And newspapers - even those slavishly and nauseatingly loyal to the Conservative Party - should exercise a bit more restraint. After all, recessions hit newspaper advertising hard, and we would all hate to see the Telegraph go down the plug, wouldn’t we? I said, WOULDN’T WE?!"
http://tomcharris.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/hope-for-the-bad-but-pray-for-the-worst/#comments
I posted a synopsis of the UK Jobs Report - showing a severely weakened UK job market - which I received yesterday on Sunny Jim - Crisis, what crisis? - Tom Harris's blog yesterday expecting him to rubbish this with his usual bombastic, Gordon and nulab are Great, so shuddup response. However, his response was a deathly silence.
The UK Jobs Report, produced by REC (Recruitment and Employment Confederation - over 50% of UK's c 24,000 recruitment companies, recruitment professional plus HR personnel right across UK) and KMPG, uses a wide range of indicators including Press Advertising Index, REC Index, ONS data, pay pressure analysis and Purchase Managers Index.
The Jobs Report states:
“Demand for permanent staff fell for the first time in five years in June”
The report's data and graphs show that demand for permanent staff has fallen from around 64 points in June last year to 48.6 points in June this year - above 50 points representing growth, below falling demand.
So, growth in demand has been declining almost continuously over the last year, yet only in June did it fall to a level where growth stopped altogether and we went into decline.
Needless to say, that’s one very steep drop in demand.
However, the gradient of declining demand from mid 2007 to mid 2008 - interestingly - almost exactly matches that of late 2000 to late 2001 - the core of the 2000 to 2003 slowdown.
Demand for temporary staff - the industry which is the keystone of UK's flexibility and continuity of economic success - also mirrors this same pattern, it's way below average levels of the past decade - with the exception of the 2001 -2003 slowdown.
Needless to say, the report shows that candidate availability (unmeasured and unmeasurable unemployment) continues to increase.
Alan Nolan, Director at KMPG commented:
“This really is a sobering set of figures proving the credit crunch has finally taken its toll and is now severely weakening the UK jobs market. Many employers now seem to be accepting the inevitable - they will have to cut costs by laying people off because their businesses won’t be growing as much as they had expected a couple of months ago.”
The report adds that with widespread redundancy programmes in the City and among housebuilders, “there is more to come”
The report forecasts a “stagnant jobs market and rising unemployment for the foreseeable future.”
The report's graph of demand shows this index falling very steeply throughout the last past 5 months.
Next month’s results will almost certainly show an exacerbation of this unhealthy situation during July.
Yet all the graphs still show no worse a position than we were in during 2000 to 2001.
So why are the analyses of current data so bleak?
Because Brown's inept, false boom, economic strategies have matured into the economic collapse which was always inherently structured into them.
Blair and Brown's inherently irrational strategy of years of phoney booms - via out of control inward migration (legal and illegal) stimulating phoney booms in construction industry, housing market, public and finance sector through massive public and personal debts - was the blood brother of the cheap, UK economy destroying, consumer durables of the nulab decade: designed to fail and to block off escape routes.
but i don't know him...yes i am whining...i know you...kind of...and well dammit anyway...okay
What do you think of James Purnell, newmania?
I think he's nulab's next leader and that we need a narrative here: spin, vanity and Blair
By the way, who was the Newsbught reporter he's supposed to have become very friendly with in a very short space of time?
James Purnell - that was me, n, don't know how I mutated into c. Purrrrrrrnelll loves in Primrose Hill, doesn't he? Wonder if he knows Kate Moss?
Woops! Think he lives in Primrose Hill too :)
I have been watchuing the fight between the New Labour and Old on the various sites and it is astonishing how much they hate eachother. My feeling is that the open election they fear will provide the material.
The wierd thing iks that the Blairites are actually , in some ways , more right wing than i am , much more hawkish about foreign meddling asnd far more commited to the market,
To me these are just tools , my loyalty is to ways of living and a complex of values . To them its all they have .
I am not worried about Purnell
Now look here Mr Newman, you can criticize me all you like for what I actually write but I am not having you criticize me for something I never wrote. I have told you countless times that the quote you attribute to me was invented by someone else and posted in my name.
On the off chance that you didn't manage to spot any of those quotes I am leaving this comment on your blog rather than Iain Dale's. You now have no excuse for repeating this quote.
Oh alright alright I was only winding you up ......yeeesh can`t enjoy yourself around here any more.....
What is the quote? I missed it on Dale. Is it Mr Boothroyd's "psephological impossibility" one again? Hahahahaahahahahahahahaahah.
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